At the end of hottest month on recordwhich has left millions of people in the United States suffocated by heat advisories, nearly two-thirds of American adults say climate change is noticeably affecting their local communities, and a majority also see climate change currently having serious effects , according to the latest NPR. /PBS NewsHour/Marist survey.
“People see that climate change is already a threat and will continue to be a threat in the future, and they support changes to keep people safe and prepared, especially at the local level,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central. , an independent research and communications organization.
Graphic by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Human-caused global warming has long been a divisive issue in the United States, thanks in part to decades of polarizing messaging from industry, political figures and others. As the world increasingly faces extreme heat and other climate change-related events, people’s opinions on what is happening still vary widely, and often based on their political leanings.
Most Democrats – 87 percent – think climate change poses a major threat. That’s about a quarter of Republicans and about half of independents.
Just over a third of Republicans and independents said they viewed climate change as a minor threat, compared with 10% of Democrats. A third of Republicans said they did not view climate change as a threat at all, compared with 11% of independents and 3% of Democrats.
“It’s really difficult to bring people from different sides of the political spectrum together on this issue,” said Nan Li, an assistant professor in the Department of Life Sciences Communication at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Despite this polarization, experts say there is room for common ground — and that nuance can often be found by looking at people’s values.
Breaking down views on the risk of climate change
Most Democrats – 85 percent – believe climate change is having serious consequences right now. That’s about a quarter of Republicans and a little more than half of independents, according to the latest poll. People are also politically divided on whether they think climate change will ever have an effect, or if it ever will.
Just under a third of Republicans and independents believe the impact of climate change won’t be felt for some time, while just 12% of Democrats share this view.
Just under half of Republicans think climate change will have no serious impact, compared with 16% of independents and 3% of Democrats.
Graphic by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
While political affiliation provides a lens through which to explore differences in viewpoints, there are also interesting divisions along gender lines.
- Among republican men, 17 percent said climate change was currently having serious consequences.
- 31 percent Republican women saw it that way.
- 5 percent of Republican women said they were unsure about the broader question of the impact (or lack thereof) of climate change, compared to Republican women. 0 percent of Democratic men and women, as well as Republican men.
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Women are generally more concerned about the environment than men, Li said. That also holds true across this survey: 59 percent of women said climate change is currently having serious consequences, compared with 49 percent of men.
Risk perception is a major problem when it comes to climate change, because if people don’t see it as a threat in the first place, they won’t be motivated to do anything, said Brianne Suldovsky, associate professor of communications. in Portland. State University. She noted that trying to convince people that climate change is a threat often backfires, which is why she says it may make sense to avoid that debate altogether.
“There is a huge opportunity here to engage people who don’t see climate change as a threat in different ways and engage them on local environmental issues that interest them,” she said.
Concerns about economic growth have increased
A majority of Americans support the fight against climate change, even at the risk of slowing economic growth. But that prospect is slightly less common than it was about five years ago, and there are signs of growing economic concern.
- 53 percent of American adults said in this poll that fighting climate change should be a priority.
- 44 percent agreed with the idea that economic growth should be greater, even at the risk of ignoring climate change. A smaller share of people – just over a third – held this view in 2017 and 2018.
- Almost three quarters of Republicans have chosen to prioritize economic growth rather than the climate.
With rising costs for basic necessities like to rent out And grocery stores in the middle of the years of high and sustained inflationPeople’s daily lives are perhaps more directly affected by today’s economic realities than they were five or six years ago, Suldovsky said.
LEARN MORE: Inflation indicator closely monitored by the Fed falls to its lowest level in 2 years
But climate change and the economy are not opposing issues: they are closely linked. Edward Maibach, who directs the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, said his organization’s polling data suggests that most people don’t view climate action and economic growth as a binary .
The consequences of global warming – including increasingly frequent and costly events like floods and wildfires – are associated with major budgetary damage. THE head of the UN And economic institutions said the transition to a more sustainable economy could also provide new opportunities for jobs and growth.
Will Namyniuk, a North Dakota resident who identifies with Republican views, doesn’t think climate change will have a serious impact and said he hasn’t noted any local effects. At the same time, he sees no choice between climate change and the economy.
Namyniuk supports the transition to clean energy, but he worries about the potential consequences of phasing out fossil fuels too quickly, such as jeopardizing the job security of industry workers.
People see climate change happening in their communities
Graphic by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Just under two thirds of respondents believe that climate change is currently significantly affecting their local community. Among this portion of respondents, there were notable variations based on gender, race, and income.
- 68 percent of women said in this survey that climate change affects their community either a lot or only partially, compared to 55 percent men.
- 70 percent non-white people shared this point of view, compared to 57 percent white people.
- 66 percent of people with a household income of less than $50,000 said the same thing, compared to 59 percent of those whose income exceeds this threshold.
Systemically disadvantaged groups, including Black, Indigenous and other communities of color, in addition to those with low income, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Those with more financial resources may not believe it affects their communities as much “compared to people who make less money, live in places without air conditioning, and are more susceptible to these climate extremes,” she said. Suldovsky said.
People living in big cities were more likely to say that climate change affects their communities a lot or somewhat, compared to those in rural areas, a discrepancy that Suldovsky said could be partly informed by political differences.
Opinions also vary by region. 63% of Northeast residents believe climate change is a major threat. That’s compared to 58 percent of people in the West, 56 percent of people in the Midwest and 51 percent of people in the South.
WATCH: How urban heat islands worsen the impacts of excess heat
Local impacts of climate change can vary considerably. Stephanie White, a Pittsburgh resident and Democrat, said she has faced more extreme weather in her community, including hotter summers and more severe flooding. A few years ago, she said, a person living in a nearby neighborhood drowned in a flash flood.
Robert Romero, who lives in Manhattan and is independent, said he has noticed a range of local effects, including rising river levels in the waters surrounding his borough. He also said heat, humidity and air quality are worse today than decades ago.
The reality is that climate change is in full swing and we are poised to see more impacts in the decades to come. Suldovsky emphasized the importance of preserving empathy toward people with whom we disagree.
“The fact that climate change is politicized makes things all the more difficult, because our beliefs about climate change are then tied to our in-group versus out-group identities and perceptions,” said Suldovsky. “So we will always process information in a way that confirms our prior beliefs.”
But that doesn’t mean we need to spend more time discussing the facts: Suldovsky said it’s not necessary to convince everyone that climate change is happening to address it. A better goal, she said, is to identify shared values and environmental issues, especially local ones, on which people with different views can find common ground and work together to resolve them.
PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey between July 24-27 of 1,285 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points and 1,165 registered voters with a margin of error of 3 .8 percentage points.
