BRICS expansion in the Middle East is occurring as a combination of regional and global dynamics. Expansion is not just a passive presence but rather an active and interactive process that impacts both regional and global contexts. BRICS entered the Middle East with the promise of bright economic prospects for the region and opportunities to strengthen bilateral and multilateral trade agreements between four new signatories: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and the Iran. These four countries are regional pillars and play an important role in defining the dynamics of the region. The expansion of BRICS in the Middle East will strengthen the multi-alignment option for countries in the region and encourage cooperative multilateralism and conflict resolution, especially since the grouping is more geoeconomic than geopolitical in nature. Instability has been the defining geopolitical characteristic of the region since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. BRICS members could help mediate disputes, quell instability and mitigate chaos.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Iran are driven by distinct geopolitical objectives, the main one being to move their economies away from resource dependence (in the case of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates united), economic stagnation (in the case of Egypt), and isolation (in the case of Iran). These countries are also motivated by the desire to be competitive on a global scale, where they wish to be partners rather than dependents. Since BRICS membership does not come with a requirement for solidarity and political commitments within the group, it is less likely to focus on conflicting motivations at the regional level and more likely to stimulate coordination economic objectives at the global level.
MENA countries today are driven less by ideology than by domestic pressure to create jobs in the public and private sectors, creating new avenues for business, investment and progress in the areas of technology and production. These countries have powerful motivations to detach the region and their countries from policies of confrontation and blockage. Economic expansion towards China and India as well as “regional rapprochement” should reconcile or distract from ideological divisions. The divisive ideological rhetoric in the country has been responsible for creating fissures in the region and dangerously questioning the legitimacy of these countries’ regimes.
The global economic dynamics that emerged after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, leading to disruption of global food supply lines to import-dependent countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have convinced these countries to participate in the emerging production and manufacturing sector. blocks like 12U2, and BRICS membership represents an extension of this policy. MENA countries have strong faith in countries like India, which have immense potential to become uninterrupted suppliers in the global supply chain. China, on the other hand, has the potential to provide a technological helping hand to Middle Eastern powers, as evidenced by Saudi Arabia’s desire to develop nuclear power plants with Chinese help. China and India are also the largest buyers of oil from Riyadh and Iran, and through BRICS cooperation, energy supplies can be more streamlined.
Importantly, oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Russia, and their collaboration with emerging Asian powers like China and India indicate the emergence of an economic bloc endowed with capital, technologies and human resources. , and markets that can become potential engines to lift countries of the South out of poverty and global inequality.
This new economic mechanism, in addition to challenging the hegemony of the dollar and benefiting the European exchange rate system, can be beneficial for small economies in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. These regions have the potential to become areas of new economic operations, development and sustainability. These new economic activities under an alternative trading system can be beneficial for political stability in regions that are in abject states of conflict, crisis and human suffering in Africa and the Middle East. Once connectivity is established, stable states will not allow instability to take root; Strong powers will have the capacity and will to eliminate potential sources, client actors and their patrons that fuel violence and instability. The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran indicates that it is possible to thaw conflictual relations and reduce the threshold of violence in Yemen, at perpetual war with Saudi Arabia since 2015.
However, rapprochement is only possible when actors feel a strategic constraint encouraging them to adopt diplomatic means to avoid direct military confrontation. The most effective policy is to strengthen bilateral economic activities and deradicalize the respective national spheres. The BRICS framework motivates its members to undertake bilateral and multilateral economic activities.
Iran and Russia view the new economic framework as an effective mechanism to evade the sanctions regime imposed due to nuclear enrichment and support non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, designated as terrorists by the United States and other European countries. The new framework also has the potential to enable trade in local currencies, which is seen as a challenge to the Western trading and foreign exchange system. Some speculation suggests that dedollarization will affect US and European dominance in the global energy supply market. However, the expansion of BRICS in the Middle East involves engagement with actors and powers who may not want to engage in an overhaul of the existing global system but rather strengthen new alliances and multilateralism, showing the world that there is room for multiple inclusive mechanisms. and alternative forms of global governance that have the potential to bring regions together and create links of connectivity to strengthen global peace and prosperity.
The expansion of BRICS is expected to accelerate the normalization process in the Middle East. Indeed, the four main regional powers – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Iran – have the potential to collectively fight extremism, terrorism, instability and regulate the crisis of refugees plaguing the region. There is an opportunity to inspire confidence among risk-averse investors and foster an environment conducive to investment and sensitive geopolitical tensions. This enabling environment would attract the interest of investors, leading technology companies and large corporations to the untapped markets of the Middle East, known for their substantial growth potential. Accelerating economic activities would involve reversing revisionist discourses, fighting extremism and containing radical ideologies. Importantly, it could foster a sense of security interdependence, encourage cooperation, and lead to the identification of common threats among Middle Eastern countries.
The development of peace would mean a decrease in external geopolitical interventions carried out by global powers like the United States and European states since 2003. Reducing external geopolitical interventions is crucial to mitigating state failure, thereby reducing the possibilities of a dangerous transnationalization. and encourage the process of rebuilding failed states. This is imperative since uncontrolled areas like Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya have exacerbated internal and external conflicts, thereby destabilizing the regional security order. Thus, the rapprochement of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran means that peace and stability have prospects. It is therefore a nuanced formal step towards the regionalization of peace, strengthening rapprochement and diplomacy.
Analysis of BRICS expansion suggests that geopolitical objectives are not the drivers; rather, economic expansion with the aim of creating an investment and financing group represents the desire for acceptance of the membership offer from MENA countries. This inclusion will primarily help eliminate intra-regional and external energy competition in the Middle East, which has also been a major contributor to instability and division in the region. BRICS can be seen as a new cooperative alliance rather than a geopolitical or military alliance, which can help Middle Eastern countries diversify their economies, expand their reach and enter international markets as trading partners . This offers the possibility of new financing tools to countries like Egypt, Ethiopia and Iran for their development programs. Countries like India, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are not inclined to favor this trajectory if the platform is used for political and strategic purposes, which would also be contrary to the founding objectives of BRICS.
The inclusion of Iran has raised eyebrows in Western circles that, along with China and Russia, it could strengthen an alliance that could pose a threat to Western interests in the Gulf and elsewhere. However, it is important to emphasize that the expansion of BRICS is not intended to challenge the existing international order. Rather, it is an attempt to create space for its economic functioning and operations, which can benefit the stabilization process and avoid conflicts and disagreements. The presence of multiple economic blocs or frameworks will strengthen interdependence and can prove corrective to imbalances in the existing economic order. The availability of multiple frameworks will strengthen health and economic competition by providing countries with multiple options for trading and choosing alliances; in this way, the system will itself find a balance by discouraging conflicting behavior and harming the functioning of the system. Countries will strategically protect themselves or navigate through alternative systems to regenerate alliances without undermining the existing system.
