The indictment of Sen. Bob Menendez on federal corruption charges has shaken congressional politics and sent shockwaves through the foreign policy establishment.
The New Jersey Democrat was, until recentlychairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a powerful role that allowed the New Jersey senator to exert outsized influence on a wide range of pressing foreign policy issues.
Menendez has been one of the leading voices of congressional opposition to the impending sale of F-16 fighter jets in Türkiye. There is “nothing new,” he said. said Earlier this summer, reiterating concerns about Turkey’s delay in ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership, Ankara’s human rights record and its hostilities with Greece, another NATO member.
“How does it work for us that one NATO ally is belligerent against another and someone is selling them F-16s?” he said. Menendez remained staunchly opposed to the F-16 deal even after President Joe Biden, for whom the senator has been a important even if sometimes eristic ally, signaled that he was ready to move forward with the transfer.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made no secret of his satisfaction with Menendez’s ongoing political implosion. “One of our most important issues regarding the F-16 was the activity of U.S. Senator Bob Menendez against our country,” he said. “Menendez’s departure gives us an advantage, but the F-16 issue is not an issue that depends solely on Menendez.”
Ankara has attempted to exploit the issue of Sweden’s NATO membership – which must be explicitly approved by all NATO member states before it can be formalized – as a source of leverage over the agreement on F-16. Meanwhile, Menendez insisted that Sweden’s NATO membership is something that “should happen naturally” and not an item of barter between Erdogan and the West.
“I have always said that Swedish ratification, which naturally should take place, is not the sine qua non condition for which I would lift control over the F-16s,” Menendez said. “There are bigger issues than this alone.”
Menendez is accused of using his considerable influence over U.S. foreign policy to benefit the Egyptian government. The allegations have already sparked calls, backed by Menendez’s Senate Democratic colleague Chris Murphy, for a reduction in U.S. aid to Egypt.
“I hope our committee will consider using whatever capabilities it has to suspend the use of these dollars, pending an investigation into what Egypt was doing,” Murphy said. said. “I haven’t spoken to my colleagues about this yet, but this obviously raises serious questions about Egypt and its behavior.”
Questions of Egyptian involvement have rightly received public attention given the content of the corruption charges against Menendez, but there are other factors to consider. Although relations between Ankara and Cairo have been strained since the ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in 2013, the two sides have only recently restoration diplomatic relations in their own right, Menendez’s signals against Turkey could be better explained by concerns closer to home.
The senator’s home state has large diaspora communities from Greece and Armenia, countries that have long had hostile relations with Erdogan’s Turkey. Menendez has emerged as a strong voice in support of Armenia, calling for recognition of the 1915-1917 Armenian genocide in the former Ottoman Empire and sanctions against Azerbaijan, Turkey’s close ally, following to allegations of human rights violations against ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan. enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Asked by Reuters in July 2023 about the conditions for lifting its hold on the transfer of F-16s to Turkey, Menendez said: “If they (the Biden administration) can find a way to ensure that the aggression of Turkey against its neighbors ceases, which is not the case. There has been a lull in recent months, which is good but there has to be a permanent reality.”
As Erdogan himself pointed out, the fall of Menendez does not necessarily guarantee the immediate adoption of Ankara’s long-sought F-16 deal. Indeed, there appears to be an emerging consensus in Congress around Menendez’s position that Turkey must approve Sweden’s NATO candidacy without preconditions for F-16 negotiations to move forward.
“I’m reading the tea leaves, and he was one of the four who were still resisting, so I think it’s more likely that it will be approved – but Sweden must be admitted to NATO,” said Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX). “We say we won’t consider that if you’re going to play hard against Sweden.”
It’s clear that Menendez’s position as a key voice in Congress on foreign policy issues will be degraded whether or not he manages to overcome this latest corruption scandal. His potential resignation from the Senate would completely remove one of the main obstacles to the fighter jet deal.
But Erdogan and his allies have reason to celebrate beyond the F-16 issue; Menendez’s fate will weaken the Armenian American lobby and reduce congressional opposition to the Aliyev government amid growing fears of “ethnic cleansing” in Nagorno-Karabakh, and dampen voices in Congress urging the White House to take a tougher line on Ankara.
Outside of Eurasia, Menendez’s indictment is not without possible implications on this side of the Atlantic. The New Jersey senator has been a principled opponent of measures aimed at rapprochement with Cuba, including efforts to push back parts of the United States. embargo on Cuba. The reshuffle of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee opens the door to a relaunch of diplomatic dialogue between the White House and Cuba, promised by Joe Biden during the 2020 presidential campaign, but it remains to be seen whether the White House will seize this opportunity.
An agenda for engagement with Cuba enjoys support from segments of the left, with New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) denouncing the embargo as “absurdly cruel“, but could provoke a negative reaction from part of the Cuban-American community and spark accusations from some Republicans that the administration is being soft on Havana.
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