Is democracy good for Israel?
An acquaintance of mine was a senior Shabak agent. Of course, he never talked about his work. We bumped into each other the day after the reasonable test was banned, and I joked, “So tell me…when are you going to get the handcuffs out and save us?” His answer challenged me: “Why do you think it is so good for us to remain a democracy in a changing world? »
Has Bibi changed?
Love him or hate him, Benjamin Netanyahu has a reputation as a genius. His political longevity alone bears witness to this. As such, I racked my brains to figure out why a genius would bring Israel to this fractured moment. Is this the same man who proved that economic incentives can dramatically increase ultra-Orthodox labor force participation? Is this the same man who resisted – and survived – Clinton and Obama? The same man who broadcast on Sky News after two suicide bombers killed Israeli civilians began by offering his condolences to Britons over the death of Elizabeth the Queen Mother, noting that Jews and Britons have a common sense of history and customs.
US-Israeli relations
The world changes. America is in trouble. Its political class is polarized, unable even to reach a consensus on the existence of climate change or on whether the 2020 elections were free and fair. In the years to come, America will find out whether global counterparties have enough appetite for the bonds they need to issue. This battle will increase question marks over the dollar’s status as the de facto global currency. This financial “war” will be played out with China, because for the first time since the Second World War, the United States finds itself facing a serious economic competitor. Moreover, this competitor does not share the same system of governance as the United States and shares few foreign policy objectives.
The media keep asking, “Was he invited to the White House or not?” The opposition is concerned about our special relationship with America, which President Biden has emphasized is based on shared democratic values. Yet, given the prognosis for the United States — facing three extreme risks: internal divisions, a looming debt crisis, and an equitable enemy — I wondered if it was in our interests to maintain such a relationship. Perhaps this is where Bibi’s genius lies: later this year, he is going to meet Chinese President Xi and Turkey’s Erdogan. But let’s first analyze some of Israel’s strategic assets.
Israel’s strategic assets
Rumor has it that we are a nuclear power. We certainly have one of the most sophisticated surveillance and cybersecurity capabilities on the planet. However, Israel now benefits from two specific things: natural gas, as well as microchip technology and manufacturing.
Israel is now an energy exporter. Long on hold, a pipeline project linking Israel to Italy via Greece may soon be given the green light. In 2020, the EU imported 42% of its energy from Russia – Europe must diversify its energy sources to ensure energy security. Money talks, and when the gas starts flowing, it will certainly change the power dynamics in EU-Israel relations. Turkey is also an energy importer and a geographically close member of NATO – another little hint of the Bibi magic?
Israel is one of 12 countries with significant microchip manufacturing capabilities, and none of us need another explanation about start-up nation status. One of the major political disagreements between the United States and China concerns the status of Taiwan, the world’s second-largest chipmaker. The United States is concerned about China’s technological advancements (especially given advances in artificial intelligence) and is increasingly restricting the supply of chipmaking equipment to China. The EU is gradually adhering to the embargo, and Japan has also indicated that it is ready. We must not forget that shortly before the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor, the United States froze Japanese assets – economic wars can turn into physical battles. Maybe now you see a little more than a glimpse of that Bibi magic.
Israel in a New World Order
China’s influence is growing in Moscow thanks to Beijing’s economic support since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The relationship is complex, but they share a common goal: to weaken American power. A strategic relationship between China and Israel, based on the export of our technology and microchips, increases the risk that China will plot a coup in Taiwan. The price to be paid by Israel is a seismic power shift against Iran and its proxies – an existential threat that the United States seems unable to control. China is well positioned to pressure Russia to reduce its footprint and influence in the Middle East, leaving Iran weak and open to new alliances, especially as Saudi-US relations could soon be as warm as those the United States shares with other NATO members. Oh, and icing on the cake: Israeli desalination and water technology should help cement the Iranian regime. On June 21, 2023, The New York Times reported:
“Sistan-Balochistan, where Iranian lawmakers warn water will run out within three months, may seem like an extreme case. But other regions are not left out. Drought leads to water cuts in the capital, Tehran, shrinks Lake Urmia, the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East, and the livelihoods that flow from it, and fuels mass migration from the countryside Iranians to the cities.”
The same article talked about water disputes on the Iran-Turkey border.
Finally, let’s turn to the Palestinians. An EU dependent on Israel for its energy security will change its diplomatic tone. With Russia silent and China buying Israeli technology, Israel will no longer need the American veto at the UN, and with a Chinese market hungry for military modernizations, $3.6 billion in annual American military aid to Israel will no longer be necessary. Without insisting on this point, Israel will face very little global retaliation when it comes to the West Bank and Gaza.
Netanyahu’s winning strategy
It seems that Bibi brings us into this new world order like a chess master. Israel will have a whole new “sponsor” and a massive business partner in China, the Shia threat will disappear, we will gain the upper hand over the Palestinians and potentially have a warm relationship with Istanbul.
However, any attempt to align Israel with autocratic states like China, Iran and Turkey would require an overhaul of Israel’s democratic DNA. As Netanyahu explains in his book “Israel’s Place Among the Nations”: When two democracies make peace, it is a peace between two peoples. When you make peace with a dictatorship, you only make peace with a man or a woman – as such, it is a peace that cannot really last. A strategic alliance with the likes of Xi cannot work as long as Israel maintains a people’s army led by democratically elected civilians. It cannot work if we maintain the same values as the United States. As such, judicial overhaul seems necessary to protect Israel in a changing world.
It all sounds pretty awesome. However, that just won’t work.
There is an apocryphal story that Israel’s first president, Weizmann, visited President Truman at the White House. Truman declares that he has the most difficult task: “I am the president of 200 million people, you are only the president of 2 million people! Weizmann replies, “I have the hardest work.” You are the president of 200 million people, but I am the president of 2 million presidents! »
Yisrael Galili, Haganah Chief of Staff, expresses the same idea thus:
“Our men are said to be somewhat lacking in the usual forms of discipline. But faced with this, they have the virtues of responsibility and courage. Any loss due to lack of military discipline is more than compensated by the self-reliance, initiative and spirit of our men.
And Yigal Alon on the formation of the IDF:
“Since it is the product of a grassroots national liberation movement, led by democratically elected civilian institutions, it is perhaps unsurprising that the new army inherited its democratic values from the Haganah.”
The very foundation of our power rests on democratic values that empower “responsibility and courage”. Our strength lies in the fact that Zionism is “a popular national liberation movement” – it demands that the souls of men and women be free at all levels. Bibi’s attempt to redefine our values has created a schism at home – and as explained above in relation to the United States – this is an extreme risk – it endangers the “the spirit of our men», a terribly destructive place!
So it would seem that Netanyahu is clearly no genius: he underestimated the spirit of the people. Israel should heed Bibi’s own words at the MEMRI conference in 2008:
“We must not make peace with a dictatorship, because it will be a peace that we cannot protect.»
