More than half a million Poles abroad have registered to vote on Sunday, October 15, during which Donald Tusk’s opposition party hopes to overthrow the ruling nationalist Law and Justice party.
ADVERTISEMENTA record number of Poles abroad have registered to vote for the upcoming parliamentary elections which could see the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party dethroned – or consolidate their hold on the country with a third government term.
According to local newspapers, more than half a million members of the Polish diaspora – more than the population of its sixth largest city, Gdansk – registered to vote on Sunday, and their vote could be crucial.
The deadline to register was Tuesday and the number of Poles abroad who will vote is expected to exceed 600,000 before midnight, as Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said the same day.
“Four years ago, there were 314,000 (voters registered abroad); at present there are 560,000,” Rau said at a press conference, adding that this number would be a record in Polish history.
Rau explained that due to the high demand from Polish citizens abroad, which raised fears that polling stations would not be able to cope with the number of voters, the country had to increase by 70%. the number of electoral commissions abroad.
Who will the diaspora vote for?
An estimated 5 million Poles currently live abroad and, based on the precedent of the 2019 parliamentary elections, they historically vote for the opposition to Law and Justice – in this case giving some Hope to Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) party for Sunday.
The right-wing populist Law and Justice party has been in power since 2015. During their years in government, they have been accused of politicizing the justice system, increasing their control over national media and limiting access to abortion to the point of being almost banned. total ban.
While in 2019 Law and Justice obtained 43.6% of the vote, the party is now several percentage points below this level of success, or 38% as of September 9, according to a recent POLITICO poll.
Behind Law and Justice are Tusk’s Civic Coalition party with 30% of the vote and the far-right Freedom and Independence Confederation – Konfederacja Wolsność i Niepodległość – with 11% of the vote.
Current polls suggest Poland’s next government could be led by a coalition, with Law and Justice failing to achieve an overall majority.
Fears of irregularities
One thing we do know is that Poles abroad will have to vote before Polish citizens at home. Under new election rules promulgated by the Law and Justice party, the count of overseas votes must be submitted up to 24 hours after polling stations close – a measure that has been criticized as unconstitutional by Poland’s Commissioner for Elections. human rights because it deprives voters abroad of their rights.
If votes are not submitted on time, they are considered null and void.
“This violates the essence of electoral law and makes the validity and effectiveness of the vote dependent on circumstances beyond the control of the citizen and resulting from problems with the effectiveness of the electoral administration,” wrote the commissioner onformerly known as Twitter.
A January poll by local newspaper Dziennik Gazeta Prawna and broadcaster RMF FM found that almost half of Poles (47.3%) feared that October’s elections would be rigged.
On Wednesday, Civic Coalition candidate Aleksander Pociej written the that “more than 40 election commissions may not be able to count votes”, although he did not provide further details or evidence to support his claims.
Small Polish parties could tip the scales
Another determining factor in the election results could be the presence of small Polish parties.
Indeed, early polls suggest that neither the Law and Justice party nor the Civic Platform party have enough support to secure an absolute majority to govern alone – meaning they may actually have to form coalitions with smaller parties.
A possible alliance could be that between the New Left, the Civic Coalition and the Third Way.
ADVERTISEMENTNew Left member Agata Diduszko-Zyglewska told Euronews that her party was establishing an action plan with other parties, and “this will certainly include the restoration of the rule of law.”
“We will certainly be the guardians of women’s rights and the separation of state and church. These are key issues that have driven hundreds of thousands of people into the streets and which directly affect security, health and the freedom of citizens in Poland.”
Poland could also turn to the far right, with a possible alliance between the current ruling party and the ultranationalist Konfederacja party, but differences over the country’s finances could stand in the way.
“We are in favor of economic freedom; simple and low taxes; less regulation; managing our own money and not taking it for the budget, our slogans are pro-entrepreneurial, Christian.” Konfederacja member Krzysztof Bosak told Euronews.
“We see no chance of implementing our program ideas with the Law and Justice or Civic Platform parties, which is why we think we will probably be in opposition after the elections.”
